PUBLICATIONS

Global Futures of Energy, Climate, and Policy: Qualitative and Quantitative Foresight Towards 2055

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Title: Global Futures of Energy, Climate, and Policy: Qualitative and Quantitative Foresight Towards 2055
Publication: EADP Discussion Paper 2019 - 01
Authors: Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz, Hasan Basri Tosun
Date: Jan 10, 2019
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Abstract

Existing long-term energy and climate scenarios are typically a rather simple extrapolation of past trends. Both qualitative and quantitative outlooks co-exist, but they often focus narrowly on individual perspectives, which is opposed to the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. Therefore, this study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary narratives that give insight into four distinct and extreme yet plausible worlds: base case ‘Business-as-usual’, worst case ‘Survival of the Fittest’, best case ‘Green Cooperation’, and surprise scenario ‘ClimateTech’. Going beyond other outlooks, our narratives focus on changes in the geopolitical landscape and global order, social perspectives on climate issues, and technological progress. These holistic scenarios are designed to overcome previous barriers by an innovative bridging between both qualitative and quantitative methods. We start with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using techniques of foresight analysis, including a facilitated expert workshop. Then, we calibrate the numerical energy systems model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we unite and refine storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives.
In addition to the narratives (which include quantitative results on e.g. emissions, energy consumption, and the electricity mix), the study generates insights on the key uncertainties and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Additionally, a set of transparent indicators serves as an early-warning system to identify which of the paths the world might enter. Lessons learnt include the dangers from increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives as well as the large role of public opinion and social transition.

An Evaluation Study of Efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Yemen

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Title: An Evaluation Study of Efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Yemen
Publication: World Journal of Business and Management Vol 4, No 2 (2018)
Authors: Eissa Hasan AboHulaika
Date: Dec 20, 2018
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Abstract

This paper is intended to evaluate the efficiency of microfinance institutions in Yemen in terms of loan officer productivity and operational self-sufficiency. This study is based on empirical method. The population of this study were 11 Microfinance Institutions operating in Yemen. The data collected was based on both primary and secondary data. The primary data was collected using questionnaire, open-end interviews, while the secondary data was collected from books, Microfinance Institutions Websites, annual reports, Social Fund for Development (SFD) annual reports, Yemen Microfinance Network (YMN), etc. The main findings of the study were that most microfinance institutions in Yemen are inefficient in terms of loan officer productivity and operational self-sufficiency. The study presented valuable recommendations and suggestions based on the findings of the study to strengthen, enhance & improve the efficiency of microfinance institutions in Yemen.

Simulating the potential of swarm grids for pre-electrified communities - A case study from Yemen

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Title: Simulating the potential of swarm grids for pre-electrified communities - A case study from Yemen
Publication: EADP Discussion Paper 2018 - 01
Authors: Martha M. Hoffmann, Dawud Ansari
Date: Jul 23, 2018
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Abstract

Swarm grids are an emerging approach to electrification in the Global South that interconnects individual household generation and storage to a small electricity network to make full use of existing generation capacities. Using a simulation tool for demand, weather, and power flows, the study analyses the potential of an AC swarm grid for a large pre-electrified village in rural Yemen. Service quality and financial indicators are compared to the cases of individual supply and a centralised micro grid.
While the swarm grid would, in fact, improve supply security from the current 12.4 % (Tier 2) to 81.7 % (Tier 3) at lower levelised costs, it would be inferior to the micro grid in both service (Tier 4) and costs. This is mainly driven by the large pre-installed fossil-fuel generator and storage capacities in the case study. However, this situation may be representative for other relevant locations. Under these conditions, a swarm grid poses the danger of creating (possibly-undesirable) incentives to invest in diesel generators, and it may fail to support prosumerism effectively.
Nevertheless, the swarm’s evolutionary nature with the possibility for staggered investments (e.g. in smaller yet complementary groups of consumers) poses a central advantage over micro grids in the short-term alleviation of energy poverty.

Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen

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Title: Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen
Publication: Resources Policy 49 (2016): 444-454.
Authors: Dawud Ansari
Date: Aug 18, 2016
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Abstract

This study analyses the economic developments in Yemen from the 1970s to today in the context of the Resource curse hypothesis. After a brief survey of the resource curse literature, using empirical data, historical accounts, and political (economic) analyses, I confirm that post-reunification Yemen suffers from an intense oil curse. The curse is evidenced by low genuine savings rates, oil-dependency, a stagnating economy, and institutional failure. However, this study finds that the institutional failure which caused this is itself a product of the resource-curse-like developments following migrant worker remittances from Saudi Arabia in the 1970s and 1980s. Moreover, the current instability in Yemen has its origins in rent-seeking defections in the corrupt governing patronage network due to sudden anticipations of oil exhaustion. The analysis suggests that worker migration is able to transmit resource curse symptoms to other economies, which makes them also more vulnerable to future resource curse triggers, and that declining resource reserves increase political instability of countries with strong patronage networks.


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