DISCUSSION PAPERS

Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives

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Title: Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives
Authors: Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz
Initial publication: EADP Discussion Paper 2019 - 01
Discussion paper date: Jan 10, 2019
Final publication: Energy Research & Social Science, Volume 58, December 2019, 101250
Journal publication date: Aug 27, 2019
Link to the final journal article
Link to the discussion paper

Abstract

This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios (‘narratives’) that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the narratives, which started with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using foresight analysis techniques, including a facilitated expert workshop. We then calibrated the numerical energy and resource market model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we combined and refined the storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives. The study generates insights into the key assumptions and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Moreover, a set of transparent and discriminatory indicators serves to identify which paths the world might take. They include quantitative results, e.g. emissions, energy consumption and electricity mix, as well as developments in the political or social sphere. Lessons learnt include the dangers of increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives, as well as the significant role of civil society. However, we also show that the development of renewables and electrification are inappropriate indicators for a successful energy transition, as these trends are also consistent with emission-intensive scenarios.

An Evaluation Study of Efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Yemen

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Title: An Evaluation Study of Efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Yemen
Publication: World Journal of Business and Management Vol 4, No 2 (2018)
Authors: Eissa Hasan AboHulaika
Date: Dec 20, 2018
External link to the full article

Abstract

This paper is intended to evaluate the efficiency of microfinance institutions in Yemen in terms of loan officer productivity and operational self-sufficiency. This study is based on empirical method. The population of this study were 11 Microfinance Institutions operating in Yemen. The data collected was based on both primary and secondary data. The primary data was collected using questionnaire, open-end interviews, while the secondary data was collected from books, Microfinance Institutions Websites, annual reports, Social Fund for Development (SFD) annual reports, Yemen Microfinance Network (YMN), etc. The main findings of the study were that most microfinance institutions in Yemen are inefficient in terms of loan officer productivity and operational self-sufficiency. The study presented valuable recommendations and suggestions based on the findings of the study to strengthen, enhance & improve the efficiency of microfinance institutions in Yemen.

Simulating the potential of swarm grids for pre-electrified communities - A case study from Yemen

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Title: Simulating the potential of swarm grids for pre-electrified communities - A case study from Yemen
Authors: Martha M. Hoffmann, Dawud Ansari
Initial publication: EADP Discussion Paper 2018 - 01
Date of initial publication: Jul 23, 2018
Final publication: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Volume 108, July 2019, Pages 289-302
Date of journal publication: 5 April, 2019
Link to the updated discussion paper

Abstract

Swarm grids are an emerging approach to electrification in the Global South that interconnects individual household generation and storage to a small electricity network to make full use of existing generation capacities. Using a simulation tool for demand, weather, and power flows, we analyse the potential of an AC swarm grid for a large pre-electrified village in rural Yemen. Service quality and financial indicators are compared to the cases of individual supply and a centralised micro grid.
While the swarm grid would improve supply security from the current 12.4 % (Tier 2) to 81.7 % (Tier 3) at lower levelised costs, it would be inferior to the micro grid in both service (Tier 4) and costs. This is mainly driven by the large pre-installed fossil-fuel generator and storage capacities in our case study. However, this situation may be representative for other relevant locations. Under these conditions, a swarm grid poses the danger of creating (possibly-undesirable) incentives to invest in diesel generators, and it may fail to support prosumerism effectively.
Nevertheless, the swarm’s evolutionary nature with the possibility for staggered investments (e.g. in smaller yet complementary groups of consumers) poses a central advantage over micro grids in the short-term alleviation of energy poverty.

Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen

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Title: Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen
Publication: Resources Policy 49 (2016): 444-454.
Authors: Dawud Ansari
Date: Aug 18, 2016
External link to the full article

Abstract

This study analyses the economic developments in Yemen from the 1970s to today in the context of the Resource curse hypothesis. After a brief survey of the resource curse literature, using empirical data, historical accounts, and political (economic) analyses, I confirm that post-reunification Yemen suffers from an intense oil curse. The curse is evidenced by low genuine savings rates, oil-dependency, a stagnating economy, and institutional failure. However, this study finds that the institutional failure which caused this is itself a product of the resource-curse-like developments following migrant worker remittances from Saudi Arabia in the 1970s and 1980s. Moreover, the current instability in Yemen has its origins in rent-seeking defections in the corrupt governing patronage network due to sudden anticipations of oil exhaustion. The analysis suggests that worker migration is able to transmit resource curse symptoms to other economies, which makes them also more vulnerable to future resource curse triggers, and that declining resource reserves increase political instability of countries with strong patronage networks.


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